Saturday, August 29, 2009

Is The Glass Half Full or Half Empty

We all know the above title suggest that a optimistic person will say that the glass is half full while the opposite, pessimistic, will say its full empty.

Before i start off with my post. Would like to share with you all this humorous article on this proverb applied by people from different professions and walk of life.

The government would say that the glass is fuller than if the opposition party were in power.

The opposition would say that it is irrelevant because the present administration has changed the way such volume statistics are collected.

The philosopher would say that, if the glass was in the forest and no one was there to see it, would it be half anything?

The economist would say that, in real terms, the glass is 25% fuller than at the same time last year.

The banker would say that the glass has just under 50% of its net worth in liquid assets.

The psychiatrist would ask, "What did your mother say about the glass?"

The physicist would say that the volume of this cylinder is divided into two equal parts; one a colorless, odorless liquid, the other a colorless, odorless gas. Thus the cylinder is neither full nor empty. Rather, each half of the cylinder is full, one with a gas, one with a liquid.

The logistician would suggest that the you should change a glass, as it is too big.

The seasoned drinker would say that the glass doesn't have enough ice in it.

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From the above article & proverb, keep in mind that for the same thing, there can be numerous perspective. I shall move on to a 'game' which is taken from the book Dear Mr Buffett. It is regarding the Financial psychology of judgement and decision making.

I have gave you $100, and I'm going to give you 2 option:

  1. Give you another $50,
  2. Flip a coin; Head: Give you another $100, Tail: Give you nothing additional
Most people will go for option 1, since is certain that i will not risk any of my money and yet get more money.

Consider another scenario
I have gave you $200, and I'm going to give you 2 option:

  1. Take away from you another $50,
  2. Flip a coin; Head: Take away another $100, Tail: Take away nothing additional
Most people now will consider flipping the coin, to avoid the certain loss of$50. Are you the 'most person' i mention in both scenario? Don't worry I'm one of them..

Now the explanation:
For both scenario, you will get $150 if you choose option 1. If you choose option 2, you will get either $200 or $100. You will get same result for both scenario, nothing changed.

But what have changed? Our behavior... People will choose the sure $150 (scenario 1) when they stand to gain. But they will flip the coin(gamble), when they stand to lose. Even if it means getting a potentially worse off result. The feeling seems to be that they should do something to avoid the loss rather than doing nothing and let it go.

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Now another example which i experience personally. Pretty similar to the above example.

It is got to do with the sale of Oakley Sunglass (I happen to sell some of them)

Retail price for Radar: $350 (illustration)
Blogger online selling price: $300
My asking price: $250

Hmm if the buyer(usually friend) get from the blog shop, he saved $50. But if he get from me, another $50. Wah! he saved $100!!

Now i add in another info. My cost price is $150.
"Hmm he is earning from me $100!!" (thoughts of buyer).

Does this thought happen to you? The negative thought of me, earning the $100 from the buyer, have offset the positive thought, the buyer would will have saved ($100).

Don't worry if you are this buyer, cause I'm one.


To Be Continued
C Cube

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